DEMOCRACY The Amazing Proportional Representation Simulator

Ottawa


In this model, the six existing ridings of Nepean-Carlton, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa South, Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa-Orleans and Ottawa-Vanier have been combined into one riding, which we will call Ottawa.

The new riding would elect six members of parliament.



Ontario provincial election - 2003


Ottawa - Actual results Ontario provincial Election 2003
  Liberal Progressive Conservative NDP Green Family Coalition Other Total
Nepean-Carlton 20,878 31,662 3,828 2,200 0 0 58,568
Ottawa Centre 22,295 11,217 11,362 3,821 0 738 49,433
Ottawa South 24,647 16,413 4,306 1,741 562 0 47,669
Ottawa West-Nepean 23,127 20,277 4,099 1,309 0 353 49,165
Ottawa-Orleans 25,300 20,762 2,778 1,402 0 0 50,242
Ottawa-Vanier 22,188 10,878 6,507 1,876 0 0 41,449
Total votes received 138,435 111,209 32,880 12,349 562 1,091 138,435
Seats won 5 1 0 0 0 0 6
Seat% 83.33% 16.67% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Vote % 46.69% 37.50% 11.09% 4.16% 0.19% 0.37% 100%
Index of Distortion +36.64 -20.83 -11.09 -4.16 -0.19 -0.37 36.64

In the 2003 Ontario provincial election, five of these ridings elected Liberal MPPs, and one elected a Progressive Conservative.

Under the existing voting system, 50.32% of the voters got the representative they voted for.

The other 49.68% of the votes were wasted.


In our model, the seats would have been allocated as follows:

Ottawa - Simulated Proportional Distribution -Ontario provincial election 2003
  Liberal Progressive Conservative NDP Green Family Coalition Other Total
Total votes received 138,435 111,209 32,880 12,349 562 1,091 138,435
Seats won 3 2 1 0 0 0 6
Seat % 50.00% 33.33% 16.67% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Vote % 46.69% 37.50% 11.09% 4.16% 0.19% 0.37% 100%
Index of Distortion +3.31 -4.17 +5.58 -4.16 -0.19 -0.37 8.89

Under this model, 95.28% of the voters would have helped to elect a local representative.

Another 4.35% of the voters would know that their vote had helped to elect provincial list members, so they would also have representation.

Only 0.37% of the votes cast would not have helped to elect an MPP, and therefore would be wasted.


Simulated compensatory list seats - Ontario provincial election 2003
Liberal Progressive Conservative NDP Green Family Total
6 8 2 4 1 21



Canadian federal election - 2000


Ottawa - Actual results Canadian federal election 2000
  Liberal Canadian Alliance Progressive Conservative NDP Green Other Total
Nepean-Carlton 24,570 22,310 9,536 2,223 805 249 59,693
Ottawa Centre 22,716 10,167 7,505 13,516 1,531 1,339 56,774
Ottawa South 26,585 12,677 8,096 3,463 0 969 51,790
Ottawa West-Nepean 22,606 14,753 10,507 2,718 585 1,016 52,185
Ottawa-Orleans 26,635 13,316 8,738 2,169 561 800 52,219
Ottawa-Vanier 26,749 7,600 7,400 4,194 1,083 1,115 48,141
Total votes received 149,861 80,823 51,782 28,283 4,565 5,488 320,802
Seats won 6 0 0 0 0 0 6
Seat % 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Vote % 46.71% 25.19% 16.14% 8.82 1.42% 1.71% 100%
Index of Distortion +53.29 -25.19 -16.14 -8.82 -1.42 -1.71 53.29

In the 2000 Canadian federal election, all six ridings elected Liberal MPs.

Under the existing voting system, 46.71% of the voters got the representative they voted for.

The other 53.29% of the votes were wasted.


In our model, the seats would have been allocated as follows:

Ottawa - Simulated Proportional Distribution - Canadian federal election 2000
  Liberal Canadian Alliance Progressive Conservative NDP Green Other Total
Total votes received 149,861 80,823 51,782 28,283 4,565 5,488 320,802
Seats won 3 1 1 1 0 0 8
Seat % 50.00% 16.67% 16.67% 16.67% 0% 0% 100%
Vote % 46.71% 25.19% 16.14% 8.82 1.42% 1.71% 100%
Index of Distortion +3.29 -8.52 +0.53 +7.85 -1.42 -1.71 11.67

Under this model, 96.86% of the voters would have helped to elect a local representative.

Another 1.42% of the voters would know that their vote had helped to elect provincial list members, so they would also have representation.

Only 1.71% of the votes cast would not have helped to elect an MP, and therefore would be wasted.


Ontario - Simulated compensatory list seats - Canadian federal election 2000
Liberal Canadian Alliance Progressive Conservative NDP Green Total
0 9 6 5 1 21


DEMOCRACY The Amazing Proportional Representation Simulator