DEMOCRACY The Amazing Proportional Representation Simulator

Etobicoke-York


In this model, the seven existing ridings of
Eglinton-Lawrence
Etobicoke Centre
Etobicoke North
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
York Centre
York South-Weston
and York West
are combined into one riding, which we will call
Etobicoke-York.

The new riding would elect seven members of parliament.



Ontario provincial election - 2003


Etobicoke-York - Actual results Ontario provincial Election 2003
  Liberal Progressive Conservative NDP Green Family Coalition Other Total
Eglinton-Lawrence 23,743 12,402 4,351 1,236 0 0 41,732
Etobicoke Centre 22,070 17,610 3,400 1,584 0 0 44,664
Etobicoke North 16,727 6,978 3,516 503 1,275 1,990 30,989
Etobicoke-Lakeshore 19,680 14,524 8,952 708 480 225 44,569
York Centre 18,808 7,862 3,494 1,496 0 0 31,660
York South-Weston 19,932 4,930 6,247 794 475 0 32,378
York West 16,102 2,330 3,954 437 0 408 23,231
Total votes received 137,062 66,636 33,914 6,758 2,230 2,623 249,223
Seats won 7 0 0 0 0 0 7
Seat% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Vote % 55.00% 26.74% 13.61% 2.71% 0.89% 1.05% 100%
Index of Distortion +45.00 -26.74 -13.61 -2.71 -0.89 -1.05 45.00

In the 2003 Ontario provincial election, all seven of these ridings elected Liberal MPPs.

Under the existing voting system, 55.00% of the voters got the representative they voted for.

The other 45.00% of the votes were wasted.


In our model, the seats would have been allocated as follows:

Etobicoke-York - Simulated Proportional Distribution -Ontario provincial election 2003
  Liberal Progressive Conservative NDP Green Family Coalition Other Total
Total votes received 137,062 66,636 33,914 6,758 2,230 2,623 249,223
Seats won 4 2 1 0 0 0 7
Seat % 57.14% 28.57% 14.29% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Vote % 55.00% 26.74% 13.61% 2.71% 0.89% 1.05% 100%
Index of Distortion +2.14 +1.83 +0.68 -2.71 -0.89 -1.05 4.65

Under this model, 96.03% of the voters would have helped to elect a local representative.

Another 3.60% of the voters would know that their vote had helped to elect provincial list members, so they would also have representation.

Only 1.05% of the votes cast would not have helped to elect an MPP, and therefore would be wasted.


Simulated compensatory list seats - Ontario provincial election 2003
Liberal Progressive Conservative NDP Green Family Total
6 8 2 4 1 21



Canadian federal election - 2000


Etobicoke-York - Actual results Canadian federal election 2000
  Liberal Canadian Alliance Progressive Conservative NDP Green Other Total
Eglinton-Lawrence 25,161 5,497 7,156 2,663 688 297 41,462
Etobicoke Centre 26,083 10,318 7,566 2,124 0 181 46,272
Etobicoke North 23,345 6,280 0 2,210 0 347 32,182
Etobicoke-Lakeshore 22,467 9,160 8,453 2,835 0 473 43,388
York Centre 24,788 4,615 2,518 2,109 532 305 34,867
York South-Weston 15,841 1,754 986 1,288 293 14,576 34,738
York West 19,768 2,734 0 2,365 0 539 25,581
Total votes received 157,453 40,358 26,679 15,594 1,513 16,893 285,627
Seats won 7 0 0 0 0 0 7
Seat % 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Vote % 60.91% 15.61% 10.32% 6.03% 0.59% 6.54% 100%
Index of Distortion +39.09 -15.61 -10.32 -6.03 -0.59 -6.54 39.09

In the 2000 Canadian federal election, all seven ridings elected Liberal MPs.

Under the existing voting system, 60.91% of the voters got the representative they voted for.

The other 39.09% of the votes were wasted.


In our model, the seats would have been allocated as follows:

Etobicoke-York - Simulated Proportional Distribution -Canadian federal election 2000
  Liberal Canadian Alliance Progressive Conservative NDP Green Other Total
Total votes received 157,453 40,358 26,679 15,594 1,513 16,893 285,627
Seats won 5 1 1 0 0 0 7
Seat % 71.43% 14.29% 14.29% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Vote % 60.91% 15.61% 10.32% 6.03% 0.59% 6.54% 100%
Index of Distortion +10.52 -1.32 +3.97 -6.03 -0.59 -6.54 14.49

Under this model, 86.84% of the voters would have gotten the local representative they voted for.

Another 6.62% of the voters would know that their vote had helped to elect a provincial list member, so they would also have representation.

Only 6.54% of the votes cast would not have helped to elect an MP, and therefore would be wasted.


Ontario - Simulated compensatory list seats - Canadian federal election 2000
Liberal Canadian Alliance Progressive Conservative NDP Green Total
0 9 6 5 1 21


DEMOCRACY The Amazing Proportional Representation Simulator