DEMOCRACY The Amazing Proportional Representation Simulator

Durham

In this model, the four existing ridings of Durham, Oshawa, Pickering-Ajax-Uxbridge and Whitby-Ajax are combined into one riding, which we will call Durham.

The new riding would elect four members of parliament.

Ontario provincial election - 2003


Durham - Actual results Ontario provincial Election 2003
  Liberal Progressive Conservative NDP Green Family Coalition Other Total
Durham 18,590 23,814 6,274 1,183 0 707 50,568
Oshawa 9,383 14,566 13,547 636 383 518 39,033
Pickering-Ajax-Uxbridge 24,970 23,960 3,690 1,946 0 0 54,566
Whitby-Ajax 22,593 27,240 5,155 1,375 0 0 56,363
Total votes received 75,536 89,580 28,666 5,140 383 1225 200,530
Seats won 1 3 0 0 0 0 4
Seat % 25.00% 75.00% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Vote % 37.67% 44.67% 14.30% 2.56% 0.19% 0.61% 100%
Index of Distortion -12.67 +30.33 -14.30 -2.56 -0.19 -0.61 30.33

In the 2003 Ontario provincial election, the four ridings elected three Progressive Conservative MPPs and a Liberal.

Under the existing voting system, 45.18% of the voters got the representative they voted for.

The other 54.82% of the votes were wasted.


In our model, the seats would have been allocated as follows:

Durham - Simulated Proportional Distribution -Ontario provincial election 2003
  Liberal Progressive Conservative NDP Green Family Coalition Other Total
Total votes received 75,536 89,580 28,666 5,140 383 1225 200,530
Seats won 1 2 1 0 0 0 4
Seat % 25.00% 50.00% 25.00% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Vote % 37.67% 44.67% 14.30% 2.56% 0.19% 0.61% 100%
Index of Distortion -12.67 +5.33 +10.70 -2.56 -0.19 -0.61 16.03

Under this model, 96.64% of the voters would have helped to elect a local representative.

Another 2.75% of the voters would know that their vote had helped to elect provincial list members, so they would also have representation.

Only 0.61% of the votes cast would not have helped to elect an MPP, and therefore would have been wasted.


Simulated compensatory list seats - Ontario provincial election 2003
Liberal Progressive Conservative NDP Green Family Total
6 8 2 4 1 21


Canadian federal election - 2000


Durham - Actual results Canadian federal election 2000
  Liberal Canadian Alliance Progressive Conservative NDP Green Other Total
Durham 20,602 13,743 8,3,67 2,545 0 326 45,583
Oshawa 16,179 10,863 5,675 4,203 0 776 37,696
Pickering-Ajax-Uxbridge 28,834 11,941 6,883 1,523 1,014 0 50,195
Whitby-Ajax 25,693 13,159 7,563 2,359 0 0 48,774
Total votes received 91,308 49,706 28,488 10,630 1,014 1,102 182,248
Seats won 4 0 0 0 0 0 4
Seat% 100.00% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Vote % 50.10% 27.27% 15.63% 5.83% 0.56% 0.60% 100%
Index of Distortion +49.90 -27.27 -15.63 -5.83 -0.56 -0.60 49.90

In the 2000 Canadian federal election, all four ridings elected Liberal MPs.

Under the existing voting system, 50.10% of the voters got the representative they voted for.

The other 49.90% of the votes were wasted.



In our model, the seats would have been allocated as follows:

Durham - Simulated Proportional Distribution -Canadian federal election 2000
  Liberal Canadian Alliance Progressive Conservative NDP Green Other Total
Total votes received 91,308 49,706 28,488 10,630 1,014 1,102 182,248
Seats won 2 1 1 0 0 0 4
Seat % 50.00% 25.00% 25.00% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Vote % 50.10% 27.27% 15.63% 5.83% 0.56% 0.60% 100%
Index of Distortion -0.10 -2.27 +9.37 -5.83 -0.56 -0.60 9.37

Under this model, 93.00% of the voters would have helped to elect a local representative.

Another 6.39% of the voters would know that their vote had helped to elect provincial list members, so they would also have representation.

Only 0.60% of the votes cast would not have helped to elect an MP, and therefore would have been wasted.


Ontario - Simulated compensatory list seats - Canadian federal election 2000
Liberal Canadian Alliance Progressive Conservative NDP Green Total
0 9 6 5 1 21

DEMOCRACY The Amazing Proportional Representation Simulator